after all, crimea is not such an impregnable fortress that the ukrainian army has already liberated crimea in its history, so we can be sure that it will happen again, but then there was no crimean bridge, this is the meaning of the kerch bridge for the supply of weapons and manpower from russia, not it is possible to underestimate what will happen to the bridge, we expect that it will still be destroyed by these missile attacks, but for some reason... this is not happening, what moment are the armed forces of ukraine waiting for? it is most favorable, i think that's right, the formation of conditions, and we are with you started the conversation with the aredrom in dzhankoya, where the division of the 18th anti-aircraft missile regiment, the same 18th zrp, which in 2014 went over to the side of the russian occupiers, that is, the first division, was destroyed.

traitors have been destroyed, retribution has begun, but there is another nuance, the fact is that such objects, namely, those that are armed with s-400, missiles, launchers, and where are they, this is feodosia, this is yevpatoria, this is sevastopol , this is mr. hankut, again, these are all the same divisions of the 18th zrp, two divisions of the 12th. by the way, rp are also traitors and the third radio engineering regiment, as well as where its components are deployed on cape trakhankut, so all this, what are all these means that represent a threat to the air component of striking the kershchen bridge, as soon as these components cease to be, because and... capable air the space

of crimea will not be covered by s-400-s-300 complexes with a large radius of action, this opens up the corresponding paths to the kerch bridge with one or another nomenclature of impression, and we saw that it was the airfield in dzhankoy where the defeat was implemented using both a minimum of six missiles, well, because the video that was shown we... saw six missiles being launched, ah, according to the satellite images, we saw six arrivals at the airfield, so 6:6, we draw the appropriate conclusions that in order to to finish off all other locations where the russian s-400 air defense systems are located, we need about 30 more missiles, at least atakams, and then we can talk about the fact that such an illegal construction. like the kerch bridge, it

deserves, well, legal destruction. mr. alexander, do you remember some time ago, the american military and ex-officer of the american army ben hodges wrote about the fact that after the supply of long-range weapons to ukraine and the destruction of this logistical artery of the russian federation and the city of kerch and the destruction of the russian military obe. on the territory of the temporarily occupied peninsula can happen very quickly and even the deoccupation of the peninsula can happen earlier than the deoccupation of donetsk and luhansk regions. how do you assess such a statement, is it really so, is the deoccupation of the peninsula with the supply and with the presence of these long-range weapons, the cutting of the russian military artery and so on, may well happen much earlier.

than donbas, for example, yes, earlier than donetsk, luhansk oblast, but not earlier than zaporizhzhia and left bank kherson, i.e. crimea, it will be somewhere in the middle between the liberation of these territories, and in principle yes, because the kershchen bridge is actually the main logistical artery, which provides all the necessary volume of material and technical. security of three groups of troops in the south of ukraine at once: this is a group defense of crimea, this is a group of troops from the dnipro, left bank kherson region, partly zaporizhia region, and this is a group of troops east, partial donetsk region, southern donetsk region, as well as zaporizhia region, it is almost 200,000 personnel, it is thousands of units of equipment, tanks, bbm. artillery and so on and

so on, all this huge mass needs every day 24x7 non-stop to have mtz, logistical support in... everything necessary, starting from ammunition, ending with fuel and lubricant materials, of course, rotation, compensation for losses human resources, compensation for the loss of mechanized resources and so on and so forth, removal of damaged equipment and much more, so let's imagine the very moment when the kerch bridge loses its functionality, immediately a huge mass will start fasting'. day by day, step by step, i feel the shortage of mtz on my own, and there will be a shortage, by land routes, the volumes supplied through the kherschen bridge cannot be compensated, by sea routes through the sea of ​​azov, from taganrog there to berdyansk,

to mariupol, too compensate for such volumes, it will not allow to provide such a large concentration of groups of troops, such a number is not necessary for everyone, and therefore somewhere in about a month, in a month and a half, this whole group of troops will experience an acute shortage, which will not allow them to advance, will not allow them to effectively conduct defensive actions and so on and so forth, so it will destroy the support system of this large group of troops. that's all, and after that, the process of counteroffensive actions will begin already in the south of ukraine. first zaporizhzhya or livoberezhna kherson region, depending on the situation, but with access to the administrative borders of the temporarily occupied crimean peninsula, we can

talk about creating a complete isolation of the peninsula and a kind of step-by-step destruction of all objects of the russian occupying forces on... the peninsula, in conditions of isolation, a large group of troops will not will be able to exist there for a long time, therefore, yes, crimea will be liberated earlier than donetsk and luhansk regions, that is, you think that there will be no storming of the trench, ukrainian troops will stop at the border of the administrative border between the kherson region and crimea, and they will wait until the troops of the occupiers there are exhausted, so it will be, first of all it will be. attrition, it will be isolation and attrition, in order to minimize losses, in any case, counterinsurgency actions on the territory of the temporarily occupied crimean peninsula will have to take place, but when we are near the administrative border, we may be able to significantly

expand, for example, our sabotage activities on peninsula, we will not have to sail half the black sea to reach the coast of... the crimea to to land there somewhere near mysutorkhankut in more or less areas that are suitable for this and so on. we will have more opportunities to conduct location operations, and i do not even exclude the fact that after some time it is on the peninsula that in such conditions, under such a scenario, such bridgeheads as are now appearing in the left-bank kherson region, in region of crimea. thank you very much, mr. oleksandr, the covers still found time, and before... before our broadcast, mr. oleksandr kovalenko was in direct contact with us, military and political columnist of the information resistance group. so, the scenario of victory is known, let's hope that ukraine will find all the necessary weapons. we hope that our western partners

will hand it over and that we will be able to use it, that's right, we will follow the process of the liberation of crimea together in the berber, gulsu program. this is a joint project of the ater tv channel, the first crimean tatar tv channel and the tv channel, watch us every week and subscribe to the espresso and atp youtube channels, korush kenja, bye, there are discounts on capsules linex forte, 15% in pharmacies. travel guide to you and savings. champions league semi-finals only on mego. the four best teams in europe and only two places in the final. bayern real and borussia psg. turn on april 30 and may 1. exclusively on megogo. there are

discounts on visas. 20% in pharmacies plantain pam and savings. there is a war going on, and not only for territories, it is also a war for minds, we are engaged in propaganda, russia has millions of petrodollars. he is trying to turn ukrainians into little russians. ukraine has become. let's counter the information attacks of the russians the chronicles of information war project with olga ley. tuesday, thursday at 17:15, repeat tuesday, friday at 22:00. verdict with serhiy rudenko, from now on in a new two-hour format, even more analytics, even more important topics, even more top guests, foreigners. inclusion experts from abroad, about ukraine, the world, the front, society, and also feedback, you

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you draw your own conclusions. welcome to the espresso channel. today in the war and weapons program we will talk about weapons, but in some ways you are unusual. will fight for the potential and opportunities of society, if it is about ukraine, or about the population, if it is about the enemy russia, as the main and extremely important component of the war. it is not only about the amount of mobilization resources, but about what forces, motives, approaches, and concepts are used by the states to resist and win the war. this is actually about the stability of our society against the russian horde, which is going to the front not only under duress, but also under threat. and sometimes for the desire that ukraine and you and i would not exist. so, about the enemy and our systems and

about whether civilization and democracy can give a worthy rebuff to these authoritarian regimes with their invented and tried-and-tested hybrid technologies for establishing a new world order. this is what we will talk about with our professional experts in the war and weapons program. my name is serhii zgurets, i am the director of information consulting. of the defense express company, which, together with the spresso channel, aims to highlight the most relevant trends in the field of security and defense, and now we are joined by oleksandr shulga, the head institute of conflictology and analysis of russia, this is such an informal association of sociologists, analysts, researchers who study russia. mr. oleksandr, i congratulate you, i am glad to see and hear you. congratulations, i just want to clarify that... now that it is already formal, we are also registered as public organizations. well, then i will say, and i

will also then add that, conditionally speaking, you studied russia there not only theoretically, but were a sniper, fought in the armed forces and saw what the enemy does on the battlefield, how he acts, and this is probably also an important experience , in order understand the enemy. and i would like to start our conversation with whether there are differences in assessments. of the russian state before the large-scale invasion and now after several years of war, what has changed in the enemy and what have we not taken into account in the behavior, intentions, and moods of the russian population in the conditions of the war? first of all, we did not study russia deeply and comprehensively before the beginning of the war of the 14th year. and all the more so it was a miscalculation of everyone, not only the powers that

were changing, but also us and you, i mean scientists, experts, we really lived in in such, you know, the world of illusion that we understand the russians, we basically lived in the same country, well, they can be superior, they can... be so gullible, if in simple language, but they do not pose a threat, all these statements in , and even at the beginning. the division of the soviet union, regarding the fact that you will be responsible for crimea, crimea is generally ours and so on, we thought that there was nothing wrong with that, well, they would talk and it would not go any further, but even after the 14th year, when crimea was already annexed, when it was annexed part of the territory in donbass, we still did not

manage to comprehensively study russia, and this is really us, this is our first. a very serious recalculation, on the other hand, the russians studied ukrainian society, studied up to and including the 13th year and after the 14th, but the plus point is that, despite everything, they did not take into account, they did not understand ukrainian society, and this was a formal study, and what actually these conclusions about ukrainian society, its readiness to fight, were constantly adjusted, and actually only what the superiors wanted to see reached the top. in fact, the conclusions were the exact opposite, they took our chaotic nature, democratic principles as weakness and unwillingness to fight for their independence, that is, it is also a plus, they studied, and we did not study and did not see the threat, they studied, but they did not want to see real results, what concerns russian

society now and what we have to understand with you and what we constantly prove to our western partners. and the problem of the russian-ukrainian war and the problem of russia for of ukraine and the world, it is not exhausted by putin's regime, it is rooted deep in such immanent features of russian society, replacing putin's surname with mishustin or patrushev or sobyanin will not even bring anything fundamentally new, it must not... for ukrainians and other neighbors of the russian federation to feel completely safe, in the fact that russia is a predictable and non-aggressive country. unfortunately, this will not happen. you and i actually returned to russia, as it was known all the years of its existence in one form or another, as

a threat and accordingly, to this we, as ukrainian society, as a state, and our partners. across the european union and beyond, have, well, have to accept it. this train of the 90s, this raid, this unnatural situation in which russia was, it has finally passed and we will return it, everything has returned to its circle. russia is a threat. mr. oleksandr, based on your experience, i would like to assess one thing, now the russian military-political leadership is introducing a kind of new social. that is, i had the opportunity to see certain researches of the russians and them there say that the essence of this new treaty should be that the society or the population of the russian federation perceives the war itself as everyday life, that it is a normal component, and to limit the impact of the war on the so

-called demobilized population, that is, in fact, the population that does not want anything victims it should not be touched, the war should remain in such a direction that does not affect the population of the russian federation, and in this way it is possible to prepare the conditions for a long-term war of attrition without particular risks for russian political regime. i would like to ask you how effective this concept is, how viable it is, should we see it as, well... this is a new systemic risk, like this new social contract in general, although i don't quite agree that it's such a social contract, how should we treat it in these current realities? yes, this is a very multidimensional question, you asked it, it is true, this is the main dilemma of the russian regime, that is, for their

survival, they must, must support this eternal war. and they cannot return even on february 23, 24, 22, but at the same time they have to adhere to the social contract that they introduced themselves, starting back in the early 2000s, that is, you do not get involved in politics, we support you at such a high level life, after the 14th year, they also raised the rates, i mean the regime, that is, they said: we add a little bit of greatness to you, and you actually don't feel it either, this is after the annexation of crimea, the beginning, creeping occupation, and you are trying. to occupy donbas, but after the start of a full-scale invasion, they in fact, this social contract, which they themselves introduced and violated, that is, they, that is

, the population does not get involved in politics, they keep their part of the contract, but life worsens and not just life worsens, but this very population is sent to die, sent to mobilize. is sent forcibly, well, in fact, to the trenches, and this is on the one hand, on the other hand, this population is needed, since the blitz-krieg did not succeed, it needs to be somehow motivated, in addition to economic ones, some incentives are needed, well , ideological, not material ones, and here this one dilemma, this is svo, the so-called people's war. puts him in prison, on the other hand, how will you ideologically motivate people to go to some svo, and we really see this in our research, we conduct

research in russia on an ongoing basis, we ask , of course, questions about russians' perception of war and understanding their goals of this war, and here the russians really have such a dissonance, because we constantly see this dilemma of russian propaganda, russian... and the evolution of russian propaganda, and even zriots, such, you know, nuclear electorate, who is for putin and for victory, they are confused about why, well, it all started, as a rule, it boils down to, well, we stand against the west, the west, but this dilemma, that is, on the one hand it is the svo, on the other hand , this is a people's war, for the survival of russia, we really see it, and the regime here... is trying to balance between material incentives to participate in the war and the insufficiency of only

material incentives. and you mentioned research on the territory of the russian federation, you them, i consider them quite unique, because you are looking for such ways receiving information, data that other social services, in particular from ukraine, cannot do this, you did data... based on the results of the 22nd year, you had the intention to assess the history and state of russian society based on the results of the 23rd year, did you succeed do you want to do it based on the results of the 23rd year and what are the changes that are so noticeable that you can tell about them? well, first of all, what did you start your question with regarding the new normality, the new mundanity, it... as norms of the routinization of war, it really happened, and it really plays on the one hand stability of the regime, because when we asked at the end of the 22nd year and asked the question

to the russians: name what worries you first of all, it was the war, well, they called it theirs, the war, it doesn’t matter, it really is 50% of the first elections thoughtfully, they called the war, and they called economic problems twice as often, now in... these one and a half years of our observations, the numbers are diametrically opposed, economic problems came to the fore, a request to putin, as the elected president, to solve economic and financial problems came to the fore problems of the russians, the successful completion of the so-called svo is not called in the first place, it is one of the top five problems, tasks for putin regarding. solving it, and we see that the regime also understands this, they also have their studies, of course, and they are now also trying to solve this

question, how, if on the one hand there are economic problems, there is a deterioration in the financial condition of russians, on the other on the one hand, the war can no longer be an excuse for these problems, how to explain to the russians what must be tolerated, and we see that others are being used. factor, the factor of terrorist attacks, the factor of fear and the fact that war is coming to your home. kroku city hall is just one of the first steps. during this month, this topic came up more than 250,000 times in the russian media, that is, you and i , exactly a month passed before this terrorist attack, it was a top-five topic and a top-five term in the russian media. for these, for these months, for these weeks, only these serious floods and the complete incompetence, as always, of the russian authorities

in their decision, in... it slightly balanced the discourse and what was discussed in the russian media sphere, but nevertheless we we see, almost every day the russians reported that they exposed this group, this group was exposed, icons with explosives from european countries, which, of course, were filled in ukraine, today in volgograd, it seems, in volgograd. it seems that another 17-year-old terrorist was exposed and so on and so forth, that is, now the russian regime is trying to find an answer to the fact that, on the one hand, war is routinized, war is the norm, but on the other hand, how then to explain why life is getting worse , if everything goes according to plan, if we win, if the west us is afraid, then why do we live so badly then, and here they go back to 99-2000 years before...

on the factor and map of terrorism, and mr. oleksandr, then the question arises whether this whole story is connected with the internal tightening of the nuts because of the threat of domestic terrorism, does it somehow affect the mood of the russian elites, relatively speaking, if we are talking about this category, that is, or the russian leaders of the clan leadership, is there a certain tension there, because linguistically speaking, it seems that last year you said that you should not with... to hope for some changes or contradictions in the elites, now in which direction is this situation developing, because why am i asking, after the prigozhyn riot there was silence, there were reports yesterday or the day before yesterday that they had arrested one of the deputy ministers of defense there , and i think that this is a sign of what, what trend, because it's not for nothing, they probably took care of shoigu's entourage, are

there any nuances that we should... take into account? well, there are two important factors, or three, which still leave me pessimistic that this is some such significant split. first, uh, so far we don't have much information, we remember when this information appeared, you know, there is pure information, there is a connotation of its evaluation, and some emotional color, that's when the information first appeared. that this timur ivanov was detained as the minister of defense, it was pure information, that is , everyone was in a stupor, i mean the russian propaganda media there, in general, the russian media, they did not understand how to present it, that is, it was simply his detained until it is clear, he is being taken here and there, that's all, and now it is not yet clear how it will be promoted, and so far even we see only assumptions from various sides, but there is no such general line, you know, this is

the first, that is... we need more information, more understanding, which narratives will be chosen by the russian propaganda, secondly, putin, so to speak, was re-elected, it is his prerogative to propose a new composition of the government, and new, new heads of these departments, respectively, in principle, this can be presented as a planned personnel rotation and send the shoigu to some. their counterpart, somewhere else. and the third, very much an important position, i.e. what exactly did this timur ivanok do, he was engaged in construction, construction in all ages and in all countries was a very nice position, and it is really without exaggeration billions of dollars, he was already involved, so to speak, in the restoration of occupied territories, in the

same mariupol and not only. the quartering of soldiers, these are billions of billions of dollars that are not actually accounted for, you can say, well, war, here the coefficients are increased, a state secret, so for now i would not call it directly a split of the elites and something very significant, more information is needed, and again, if they wanted to replace the shoigu, then in principle, just the reason, that is, the re-election of putin and reformatting of the government. this is, well , quite a legitimate reason and a legitimate date for this, ah, as for the business elites, as for the inner circle, we see that it actually, well, crystallized, it is actually unchanged, ah, there they try such, well...